AI mentions on utility earnings calls fall from 47% to 28% year-over-year; U.S. House passes Ratepayer Protection Act 417-3
Concluded·Day 5·in the edition since 28 Sep 2026·3 sources·updated 2 Oct 2026
SemiAnalysis on US data center moratoriums
The gist
Data Center Moratoriums Delay Little of US Buildout, SemiAnalysis Says
The SemiAnalysis figures suggest that political opposition, while widespread, is not translating into capacity delays at scale. The near-unanimous House vote on the Ratepayer Protection Act and the public concern over electricity bills indicate that the political dimension around data center energy costs is growing more formal.
The full picture
SemiAnalysis argues that despite more than 300 local government restrictions on data centers in the US, the buildout is not materially delayed. SemiAnalysis estimates only 1,525 megawatts is actually delayed out of roughly 20 gigawatts located inside restricted areas; including New York's statewide action raises that figure to about 2.3 gigawatts. SemiAnalysis forecasts more than 38 gigawatts of IT capacity delivered in the US in 2027, more than double 2026 levels, with 22 gigawatts already under vertical construction and the remaining 16 gigawatts largely financed and in site preparation. Developers facing moratoriums can typically relocate, redesign, or legally challenge projects rather than abandon them. Moratoriums also cannot stop projects that already have permits, zoning approval, or construction underway. Separately, AI mentions on utility company earnings calls fell from 47% to 28% year-over-year. One explanation offered is that demand shifted from forecast to contracted deals, reducing the need to signal AI demand on calls. Political pressure around electricity costs is cited as a second factor: roughly 70% of Americans worry data centers will raise their electricity bills, and the U.S. House passed the Ratepayer Protection Act 417-3 in September 2026. BCG found mentions of electricity-cost affordability on the calls of the 29 largest listed utilities climbing several-fold between 2019 and 2026.
How it developed
BloombergNEF raised its US data center capacity forecast to 118 gigawatts by 2030, a 52% upward revision from its December 2025 estimate, and to 194 gigawatts by 2035, corroborating SemiAnalysis's September 27 finding that local moratoriums are not materially slowing the US buildout.
As of October 1, SpaceX is also projected to reach 2.3 gigawatts of compute capacity by late November 2026, up from 1.4 gigawatts at end of Q2 2026, through two batches of 220,000 NVIDIA GB300 GPUs.
First in the edition · 28 September 2026
Reuters/Ipsos poll finds 73% of Americans believe AI firms not doing enough to prevent harm; Gallup finds only 36% of Americans view AI as more helpful than harmful
MilkRoadAI summarizes SemiAnalysis findings, noting only 1,525 MW delayed out of 20 GW in restricted areas
Anthropic reported in early talks to lease up to 1 GW of compute capacity from Stream, majority-owned by Apollo Global Management
South Korea semiconductor exports hit record $34.1B in first 20 days of September 2026, up 259.4% year-over-year
Analysis notes DRAM prices reversed a decades-long downward trend, surging roughly 171% year-over-year as producers shift capacity to HBM
TrendForce projected global data center power capacity to more than double from 100.5 GW in 2024 to 211.1 GW by 2027
SemiAnalysis published an analysis on September 27 finding that only about 1,525 megawatts of US data center capacity is actually delayed by more than 300 local government restrictions, out of roughly 20 gigawatts located inside restricted areas.
The firm forecasts more than 38 gigawatts of US IT capacity delivered in 2027, more than double 2026, with 22 gigawatts already under vertical construction. SemiAnalysis notes that developers facing moratoriums can typically relocate, redesign, or legally challenge projects rather than abandon them.
Eric Schmidt argued AI infrastructure costs, not energy, are the binding constraint, estimating $50 billion per gigawatt
Nomura projects global memory revenue growing to $3.675 trillion by 2030, with AI data center memory comprising nearly half
Gartner August 2026 forecast raises memory revenue estimates to $837.3B for 2026 and $1.076T for 2027; memory projected to reach 54% of total semiconductor revenue
BloombergNEF publishes US data center capacity outlook, forecasting 118 GW by 2030 and 194 GW by 2035, with 52% and 83% upward revisions respectively from December 2025.
Sources
Milk Road AI Twitter
newsletter.semianalysis.com
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