Goldman Sachs Puts 2026 Global AI Investment at $1.019 Trillion

Goldman Sachs Research estimates 2026 global AI investment will reach $1.019 trillion, with $581 billion in the United States. The figure is approximately $200 billion above the hyperscaler spending totals that markets typically track, because Goldman's methodology treats hyperscalers' 2022 capex as a pre-boom baseline and counts most spending above that level as AI-specific investment, excluding financial leases to avoid double-counting. U.S. AI investment is projected to rise from 1.8% of GDP to 2.8% by 2028, while the global share climbs from 0.9% to 1.4%. Goldman also projects that Amazon, Meta, Google, Microsoft, and Oracle will collectively grow AI infrastructure spending by more than 50%, reaching $1.2 trillion in 2027 and $1.4 trillion in 2028, and estimates that a $250 billion surprise in either direction next year would shift S&P 500 earnings growth by roughly 6 percentage points. Global per-share earnings estimates for 2026 have risen from roughly $52 to over $61, and 2027 estimates from approximately $56 to over $71. As one summary of the Goldman data noted, "Analysts usually begin with optimistic forecasts and gradually lower them as reality catches up but this time, the exact opposite is happening." AI spending is flowing into semiconductors, memory, networking, cloud infrastructure, data centers, cooling systems, and power equipment, and is beginning to spread beyond the largest American technology companies. On infrastructure capacity, BloombergNEF raised its U.S. data center forecast to 118 GW by 2030, a 52% upward revision from its December 2025 estimate, and to 194 GW by 2035, an 83% upward revision. Separately, Alphabet is funding nuclear capacity increases at two Georgia plants that power its data centers, and Microsoft announced it will invest $10 billion in Middle East digital infrastructure through 2030.